ASML Beats Q1 2026 Estimates, Raises Full-Year Guidance to €36–40B Despite China Export Curbs

ASML Holding reported Q1 2026 total net sales of €8.8 billion and net income of €2.8 billion, beating analyst expectations of €8.5 billion and €2.5 billion respectively. Gross margin came in at 53.0% for the quarter. CEO Christoph Fouquet raised ASML's full-year 2026 net sales guidance to €36–40 billion, up from the prior range of €34–39 billion, citing accelerating demand from chipmakers expanding AI-related capacity. For Q2 2026, ASML guided for net sales of €8.4–9.0 billion with a gross margin of 51–52%.

Despite the strong results and raised guidance, ASML shares fell 6% on April 15 as investors focused on the impact of tightening export restrictions on China business. The Dutch government, acting in alignment with the U.S. Commerce Department, has progressively restricted ASML's ability to service and deliver certain EUV and DUV tools to Chinese customers. China's share of ASML's total net sales has been declining as a result, and investors are factoring in further headwinds as restrictions tighten through 2026. The export control environment remains the primary overhang on what is otherwise a company with a near-monopoly on the EUV systems required for leading-edge chip production.

The strong underlying demand is driven by hyperscalers and chip manufacturers racing to expand AI capacity. ASML's EUV bookings surged 150% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025, and the company's backlog remains at record levels. Its High-NA EUV system — the EXE:5200 — is now being qualified at research institutions including imec for sub-2nm process development, targeting HVM deployment in 2027–2028. ASML's unrivaled position in the equipment supply chain means that virtually every advanced chip node — from TSMC 2nm to Intel 18A — depends on ASML tools, making the company's guidance a bellwether for the broader semiconductor industry's capacity expansion trajectory.